Are you trying to time a purchase or sale but feel buried in charts and jargon? You are not alone. Whether you watch Key Biscayne or the Florida Keys, understanding a few core numbers can make you confident and decisive. In this guide, you will learn the three metrics that matter most, how to read them together, and how local factors like seasonality and insurance shape the story. Let’s dive in.

Core metrics to watch

Months of supply

Months of supply shows how long it would take to sell all current listings at the recent pace of sales if no new homes came on the market. The basic formula is active listings divided by average monthly closed sales. Many reports use a 3‑ or 12‑month average to smooth small‑market noise.

Here is how pros read it:

• Under 4 months is often a seller’s market.
• Around 4 to 6 months is considered balanced.
• Over 6 months tends to favor buyers.

In small island markets, a few new listings or a single closing can swing months of supply fast. In Key Biscayne and the Florida Keys, segment by property type and price band for a clearer picture. Condos and luxury homes can behave differently than single‑family homes under $1 million.

What it means for you:

• Buyers: Higher months of supply usually means more time and better leverage on price and terms.
• Sellers: Lower months of supply supports firmer pricing and faster timelines. If supply is rising, consider sharper pricing, strong staging, or concessions.

Days on market

Days on market (DOM) measures how many days it takes a property to go under contract. Many reports use median DOM to reduce skew from outliers.

How to read it:

• Falling DOM suggests stronger demand or better pricing.
• Rising DOM can signal buyer hesitation or overpricing.

Season matters. In South Florida, winter high season from November through April often shortens DOM, while late spring and summer can lengthen it. Off‑market deals and private sales can also make public DOM look lower than actual buyer urgency.

What it means for you:

• Buyers: Longer DOM can indicate room to negotiate.
• Sellers: Short DOM means your price and presentation match demand. If DOM rises quickly, act early on price and marketing.

List‑to‑sale ratio

The list‑to‑sale ratio is the sale price divided by the list price. Some reports use the original list price, while others use the final list price after reductions. Know which one you are looking at.

How to read it:

• Near or above 100 percent points to multiple offers or very tight pricing.
• Below 95 percent signals more negotiation room or initial overpricing.

Luxury listings can show lower ratios even in healthy markets because buyers are fewer at the top end. Always pair this metric with months of supply and DOM.

What it means for you:

• Sellers: If ratios are near 100 percent in your segment, you can list at market value with confidence. Lower ratios call for careful pricing and possible concessions.
• Buyers: Lower ratios suggest potential price reductions or stronger terms.

Key Biscayne vs. Florida Keys

Key Biscayne and the Florida Keys are both coastal and seasonal, but they are not the same market. Key Biscayne is a small island village tied closely to greater Miami. The Florida Keys stretch across Monroe County with a strong second‑home and vacation‑rental base. Your read of the numbers should reflect those differences.

• Sample size: In both places, monthly sales counts can be low. Use 3‑ or 6‑month rolling averages to avoid chasing single‑month spikes.
• Property mix: Condos often dominate in Key Biscayne, while many Keys towns are a mix of single‑family homes, duplexes, and waterfront estates. Compare like with like.
• Buyer mix: Cash and international buyers are common at higher price points and can shorten DOM without changing overall affordability for financed buyers.

Segment by type and price

Break out condos vs single‑family homes and compare price bands such as under $1 million, $1–3 million, and $3 million and above. You may see two markets at once, like tight supply for single‑family homes but softer conditions for condos.

Adjust for seasonality

Expect more buyers and faster pace in winter. Compare each period to the same season last year, not just the prior month. That keeps you from confusing normal season shifts with a real trend change.

Factor insurance and risk

Flood insurance availability and premium changes can reduce the pool of qualified buyers, raise DOM, and push months of supply higher. Sellers should be ready to share elevation information, mitigation steps, and claims history. Buyers should include insurance in total affordability.

Mind off‑market activity

Pocket listings and private sales are common in small, affluent areas. This can understate true demand in public data and make DOM appear lower. Local agent networks help you see opportunities before they hit the open market.

A simple monthly checklist

Use this step‑by‑step list whenever you read a market update:

1. Inventory and months of supply: Is it rising, falling, or steady? Check both 3‑month and 12‑month trends and by price band.
2. Closed and pending sales: Are pendings rising? They tend to lead closed sales by one to two months.
3. DOM and list‑to‑sale ratio: Falling DOM with ratios near 100 percent means tightening conditions. The opposite suggests a buyer edge.
4. New listings and price cuts: More new listings plus more reductions point to softening demand.
5. Financing mix: Watch mortgage rate trends and cash share. Higher rates often shrink the financed buyer pool.
6. Seasonality: Compare to the same period last year and known seasonal peaks.
7. External catalysts: Insurance shifts, lender changes, hurricanes, or building policy changes can move the market quickly.
8. Sample size: If monthly sales are under 15 to 20, lean on rolling averages and call out volatility.

Turning signals into action

Here are common patterns and what they usually mean:

• Low months of supply with falling DOM and list‑to‑sale near 100 percent: Expect competition. Buyers should be pre‑approved, move fast, and make clean offers. Sellers can test pricing at market value or slightly above.
• Months of supply above 6 with rising DOM and frequent price cuts: Buyers can negotiate. Sellers should consider sharper pricing, upgrades that matter, and strategic concessions.
• Diverging segments, like 5 months of supply for condos but 2 for single‑family homes: Treat them as two markets. Tailor price and timing to your segment.

Practical next steps:

• For buyers: Get financing lined up, track DOM by building or neighborhood, and plan offers in winter if you see supply tightening. Always price in insurance.
• For sellers: Price to recent closed comps rather than stale list prices. If the market is tight, prepare for quick timelines. If softening, consider pre‑listing inspections, targeted marketing, or waiting for peak season.

Final thoughts

You do not need to become a data analyst to read the market like a pro. Focus on months of supply, days on market, and the list‑to‑sale ratio, and always segment by property type, price tier, and season. With those habits, you will separate short‑term noise from real shifts in both Key Biscayne and the Florida Keys.

If you want a data‑driven plan for a Florida Keys purchase, sale, or vacation‑rental strategy, let’s talk. Reach out to Jessica Borraccino to align today’s signals with your next move.

FAQs

What is months of supply in real estate?

• It is active listings divided by the average number of homes sold per month. It estimates how long current inventory would last at the recent sales pace.

How should I interpret days on market trends?

• Falling DOM points to stronger demand or better pricing, while rising DOM often signals more buyer caution or overpricing.

What does a list‑to‑sale ratio near 100 percent mean?

• It indicates buyers are paying at or near asking price, which is typical of competitive conditions, especially in peak season.

Are Key Biscayne and the Florida Keys the same market?

• No. They share coastal traits but differ in buyer mix, property types, and ties to the Miami metro. Always compare by segment and season.

How do insurance changes affect Key Biscayne and the Keys?

• Higher premiums or underwriting shifts can reduce qualified buyers, lengthen DOM, and lift months of supply, especially in lower turnover areas.

What is the single best metric to watch first?

• Start with months of supply for a quick read on balance, then confirm direction with DOM and the list‑to‑sale ratio.